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Experimental
Casual Election Simulator
Many candidates get elected in two districts but can only keep one seat. Who is likely to win the casual election depending on which district they relinquish? The prediction is based on how votes were transferring at the count where the candidate was elected, per the Electoral Commission data.
How does the algorithm work?
- Identify the count at which the relinquishing candidate first met or exceeded the quota.
- Look at the surplus transfer in the next count — where their votes flowed.
- Consider only same-party contenders in that district, and exclude anyone already elected in another district (since they cannot hold two seats).
- Compute each eligible contender's share of that transfer (weighted 70%), plus 20% proximity to quota and 10% from first-count strength.
- The eligible contender with the highest score is the most likely casual-election winner.
⚠️ This is an approximation. The official casual election redistributes all the candidate's ballots (not just the surplus), but the underlying preference pattern is the same.
Doubly-elected candidates — 2026
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CASUAL · Prediction · 2026